#NativeVote18 The election math behind Paulette Jordan’s campaign in Idaho

Paulette Jordan is one of seven Native American candidates running for statewide office — and one of two Native women running to a lead a state

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Paulette Jordan: The issues “that tribes push forward are good for everyone.” Jordan is running for governor of Idaho and has a May 15 primary. (Official photo)

Mark Trahant / Indian Country Today

A couple of weeks ago I was driving across the border into Idaho from Montana. I stopped the car and took a picture of the “Welcome to Idaho” sign. I thought: It would be cool if that sign read, just under the Idaho greeting, Paulette Jordan, Governor.

Jordan, Coeur d’Alene, is running as a Democrat in what is perhaps the reddest, most Republican state in the country. So it’s an impossible task, right?

No. Let’s do the math.

The first part of that equation is done: Running. So many talented people survey a political campaign and then, for whatever reason, pass. But the inviolate rule of politics is that you must run in order to win. So that is a huge step.

Jordan is one of seven Native American candidates running for statewide office and one of two Native women running to a lead a state, (something that has never been done before.) She will be the first of those candidates to face voters and she will need to win a contested Democratic primary on May 15. A date that’s coming up fast.

One of the most important reasons for Native American candidates is the aspirational aspect. It’s a way for young people to see a future, (one that is far more important than just politics.) During a recent trip to Fort Hall, and the Shoshone-Bannock Tribes, Jordan took time out to visit the students. She also met with community members where she said on KPVI 6 that the issues that “tribes push forward are good for everyone, all of humanity. So when we talk about education in tribal communities, it’s the same for Hispanic communities, it’s the same for every single district up and down this state.”

Jordan is running against A.J. Balukoff, who, unlike Jordan, can use his own wealth to fund his campaign. (Something he has already done to the tune of $175,000.) Four years ago Balukoff was the Democratic nominee for governor and lost by a wide margin.

Idaho has an odd primary. The Republicans limit their ballots to anyone except those who publicly claim party membership. But anyone who is “unaffiliated” or independent can pick up a Democratic Party ballot on election day. Because Idaho is such a conservative state, most voters sign up with the Republicans. Four years ago more than 155,000 voters did just that, while only 25,638 voted in the Democratic primary.

This is actually an advantage for a candidate like Jordan. She only needs to find a few thousand votes (my bet is there will be more interest than four years ago.) So, let’s say that means the primary winner will earn at least 25,000 votes. That’s a plausible number in a season where nontraditional candidates are getting a second and third look.

There is only one county in Idaho that regularly votes for Democrats: Blaine County. That’s Sun Valley, Ketchum, the Wood River Valley. Think lifestyles of the rich and famous. Hillary Clinton had a two-to-one margin over President Donald J. Trump in Blaine County. Jordan must do well here.

Votes from Idaho’s five reservations could help, too. The numbers are small, but if they are one-sided, say 100, 200, 300 votes to a handful, it could give her an edge. Especially in a primary.

Jordan should also poll well with younger Democratic voters and with Hispanics. These two constituent groups are growing in numbers and importance. Well, sort of. Idaho is a young state: There are more people under 18 than any other demographic group. And younger voters from 18 to 25 are a relatively small cohort at roughly 155,000 people. But in the last elections this group increased its turnout rates, so there is a potential upside. Hispanics now account for 12 percent of Idaho’s population and, according to Pew Research, are some 80,000 eligible voters (far more than what would be needed in a primary election.)

The math is there. It’s possible.

What about Jordan’s message? Is she connecting with primary voters? That’s a much tougher call. She has to reach voters in a state with two time zones and a distinct geographic divide. I often joke that Idaho is the only state with three capitals: Salt Lake City, Spokane and Boise. Each major city has its influence over regions of the state.

Recently Jordan’s team made a rookie mistake adding the word “ever” to an email about her being the only Democrat elected in North Idaho. This took away from an important message: Jordan won re-election to the Idaho House two years ago in a terrible cycle for Democrats. Her campaign convinced voters who would not normally vote for a Democrat. This should be said over and over as a reason why Idaho Democrats should vote for Jordan.

And after that? The toughest hill to climb come after the primary. Jordan would then need to make her case to Idaho’s deeply conservative Republican voters. But if there is ever a year to do just that, it’s this one.

But first the May 15 primary is coming fast. That’s a hurdle that Jordan needs to clear first.

Mark Trahant is editor of Indian Country Today. He is a member of the Shoshone-Bannock Tribes. On Twitter: @TrahantReports (Cross-posted on TrahantReports)

Raising money on the road from NCAI to Alaska (plus corrections) #NativeVote18

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Deb Haaland is a candidate for Congress in New Mexico. Diane Benson has run in four statewide races in Alaska, including a congressional seat.
Mark Trahant / Trahant Reports

New Mexico congressional candidate Debra Haaland is criss-crossing Indian Country determined to get her name out there — and to raise enough money to be competitive. She began in Milwaukee at the National Congress of American Indians annual convention and she ends the week in Anchorage at the Alaska Federation of Natives convention.

Politics is a tough business. Most Native American candidates cannot dip into their personal wealth to run for office (at least the Democrats). It’s raising money five bucks at a time. A good haul is when someone writes a check with more than one zero. Yet it’s hard to understate how important that money hunt is to a campaign. Haaland, unlike most Native American Democrats, is running in a district with a lot of other Democrats. That means she has an excellent shot at capturing a seat in Congress — the first Native American woman to do that — but first she must win a crowded primary. Haaland is Laguna Pueblo.

A Thursday night fundraiser in Anchorage was typical. It was much more of an introduction than a call for hard cash. That’s important. It was great to hear stories. We need that in politics. But it will take money, too. If we really want to see more Native Americans in Congress, thousands of  five-plus dollar donations will make all the difference.

At that event one of the most touching moments was when Diane Benson, who ran for Congress in Alaska against Rep. Don Young, talked about why she ran. Her son had been injured in the military and yet politicians were making war and peace decisions without an understanding of the consequences. Benson is Tlingit.

I have been collecting information about Congress and Native American representation. And, it turns out, I was wrong about the actual numbers. I checked this morning and according to the House of Representatives historian since March 4, 1789, there have been  10,273 people elected to that body. (I was using a smaller number.) There has never been a Native American woman. Ever.

This is my “I am wrong post” because I also was missing an important name, Georgianna Lincoln, from my list of Native women who have run for Congress. Lincoln, a former state Senator, is Athabaskan, and she also ran against Rep. Young in Alaska.

So here is my list, starting in 1988, Jeanne Givens, a Couer d’Alene tribal member in Idaho was the first. Then Lincoln in Alaska, Ada Deer, Menominee, in Wisconsin, Kalyn Free, Choctaw, in Oklahoma, Diane Benson, Tlingit, in Alaska, and Denise Juneau, Mandan Hidatsa Arikara, in Montana. Three Native women have run in the Democratic primary in Arizona: Mary Kim Titla, White Mountain Apache, Arizona Rep. Wenona Benally, Navajo, and Victoria Steele, Seneca. And in this election cycle, Carol Surveyor, Navajo, in Utah and Haaland.

I better stick with “at least” because I am sure more names will surface. But the point remains: It’s long past time to elect the first Native American woman to Congress. After 10,273 (add another 435 for next November) elections we need a first. And a second. And more, real representation.

Let’s do the numbers.  We have the first round of campaign finance reports out and there are seven Native American candidates for Congress, three Republicans and four Democrats.

And in the money chase, it’s the Republican candidates raising the dough. Former Washington state Sen. Dino Rossi, running in Washington’s 8th, in this quarter reports $578,822. To put that amount in perspective: That’s more than the incumbent, Rep. Markwayne Mullin, and nearly as much as Rep. Tom Cole. Mullin raised $511,017 this quarter. And Cole is at $640,649 (with $1.7 million cash on hand).

Rossi is Tlingit, Mullin is a member of the Cherokee Nation, and Cole is Chickasaw.

On the Democrats’ side the numbers are smaller.

Haaland has raised $262,098 so far in this election cycle. She’s second in the money race in her Albuquerque district. Remember this election is as much about the June primary as it is the general election because it’s a Democratic-leaning district.

Tahlequah Mayor Jason Nichols, Cherokee, is running against Rep. Mullin. He has yet to file any campaign reports. No reports are listed for Carol Surveyor in Utah and J.D. Colbert in Texas.

Mark Trahant is the Charles R. Johnson Endowed Professor of Journalism at the University of North Dakota. He is an independent journalist and a member of The Shoshone-Bannock Tribes. On Twitter @TrahantReports

Reposting or reprinting this column? Please do so. Just credit: Mark Trahant / TrahantReports.com #IndigenousNewsWire #NativeVote18

 

This article was corrected to fix a misidentified candidate.

ICYMI: My first audio election special is on iTunes or Soundcloud. Download here. 

 

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Why run? Utah candidate cites Standing Rock as ‘awakening’ #NativeVote18

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James Singer will announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate on May 2. (Campaign photo)

 

Mark Trahant / Trahant Reports

James Singer will run for the United States Senate in Utah. He’s the first Native American to run in 2018 elections. Singer is a member of the Navajo Nation. He’s also the first candidate to cite Standing Rock as the answer to the question, “why run?”

“This past year has marked an awakening for Indigenous Peoples,” Singer said on his web site, Singer for Senate.  “At the center has been the struggle at Standing Rock, North Dakota against the Dakota Access Pipeline. I was moved to action as I saw my Native sisters and brothers stand against an encroachment which threatened not only their inherent sovereignty, but also their humanity. These water protectors were pummeled with rubber bullets, sprayed with powerful water cannons in freezing temperatures, attacked with dogs, and shot with pepper spray, while bulldozers cleared away sacred land and burial sites so that a pipeline could be pushed through. The love of money by a small, but powerful few, is sickening to the rest of Americans, regardless of political affiliation.”

Singer has already filed his paperwork, but the official announcement will be made at the Glendale Public Library in Salt Lake City on May 2. Singer is from Kearns, Utah, and currently resides in Salt Lake City. He teaches sociology at Westminster College and Salt Lake Community College and is currently in the sociology doctoral program at Utah State University. More about his background here.

According to his web site: “The Singer for Senate campaign stands alone as not only a representation of Native voices in Utah, where James is the first Diné (Navajo) candidate in the state, but also a departure from the grip of establishment politics as a social democrat.”

This is an interesting idea because it raises questions about the next generation and the rise of a new kind of politics. Imagine: Running for office in Utah on the issues of Standing Rock, and therefore climate change, the excesses of capitalism, gender inequality, and “a vision to live more sustainably.”

And 2018 will not be an ordinary election. Even in Utah. Sen. Orrin Hatch has already raised $1.3 million for his re-election effort but he may not run. Hatch is 83 years old. There have been several other Republicans who are considering campaigns, including former presidential candidate Mitt Romney. It’s also possible that Evan McMullin, a former CIA agent who ran for president as an independent, could run again as a conservative independent.

It’s way too early to say this, but what the heck, a three-way race would be the ideal outcome for Singer because it could split the conservative votes (Utah is one of the reddest states in the country) and open up a path for a different kind of politician.

It’s also true that Utah’s demographics are changing. Recent census data show that nearly four out of every 10 new Utah residents are from a racial or ethnic group. And Salt Lake County, the base of Singer’s candidacy, is 27.4 percent minority (accounting for nearly half of the state’s diversity). Another urban county, Weber, is 22.9 percent minority. (One rural county, San Juan, is 53.4 percent Navajo.)

But to win a Senate seat a candidate must create a much broader coalition. “I have lived in Utah nearly my entire life,” Singer says. “I know our values: We work hard. We want safe communities and to have enough to provide for our families, whatever they look like. We want people to be treated fairly and justly. We want to be able to better our lives. Our hearts ache to see suffering. We have a spirit of service and giving that is unmatched. We want to help those in need and share when we are prospering. There are so many things that we share in common.”

The Singer campaign is asking for small donations of $27 to fund their campaign. (Six years ago Hatch spent nearly $12 million for his re-election. Hatch has been in office since 1977.)

Mark Trahant is the Charles R. Johnson Endowed Professor of Journalism at the University of North Dakota. He is an independent journalist and a member of The Shoshone-Bannock Tribes. On Twitter @TrahantReports

Reposting or reprinting this column? Please credit: Mark Trahant / TrahantReports.com